Régimen Ortega-Murillo entra en su fase final y se ve obligado a negociar, advierte Óscar René Vargas
El sociólogo y analista político Óscar René Vargas advirtió que el régimen de Daniel Ortega y Rosario Murillo se encuentra en un “callejón sin salida”, presionado por una profunda crisis interna y un entorno internacional adverso que lo empuja, sin margen real, hacia una negociación política y un eventual escenario electoral
TL;DR
- Óscar René Vargas believes Ortega's regime is in a "dead end" due to internal crises and international pressure.
- The regime's strategy of control and punishment has not resolved structural issues, leading to economic stagnation and labor poverty.
- Internal fragility is evident in mass dismissals within the state, indicating a lack of control.
- The conflict with both Catholic and Evangelical churches remains unresolved, weakening the regime.
- International alliances with China and Russia have not compensated for the rupture with the US, EU, and multilateral organizations.
- Ortega's margin of maneuver has drastically reduced, with the US now holding the international political initiative.
- A discreet diplomatic mission by Foreign Minister Denis Moncada to Washington suggests attempts to open communication channels.
- Any real negotiation would require substantive concessions: return of bishops and priests, release of political prisoners, restoration of civil rights, return of confiscated goods, and return of exiled political leaders for credible elections.
- The year 2026 is seen as decisive, with the regime forced to cede power to preserve some control.
- Concentration of power in Rosario Murillo is viewed as a weakness, making the state inefficient and deepening crises.
- The regime is in the final stage of its historical cycle, comparable to the end of Somocismo.
- The return of exiled individuals and an electoral process are considered inevitable to avoid a more abrupt fall.