Fitch rebajó la calificación de Colombia: ¿Cuáles fueron las razones?

TL;DR

Fitch downgraded Colombia's foreign currency issuer default rating from BB+ to BB.
Reasons for the downgrade include large fiscal deficits and increasing medium-term debt.
Constraints on ratings are high fiscal deficits, rising debt/GDP, high interest burden, and commodity dependence.
Fitch projects a year-end fiscal deficit of 6.5% of GDP.
Interest payments are projected to decrease to 3.6% of GDP.
A primary deficit of 2.9% is anticipated, higher than in 2024.
2026 presidential elections are seen as a challenge, with potential repercussions from current decisions.
Experts suggest that the reduction in the General Budget and the non-approval of tax reform could worsen the central government's deficit to 7.6% of GDP.
Moderating primary spending is recommended, as maintaining it above nominal GDP would negatively impact national finances.
Fitch foresees downside fiscal risks due to reduced revenues and the government's reluctance to cut spending.
Experts predict that increasing spending pressures and budgetary rigidities will make further deficit reduction difficult after 2026, potentially leading to increased debt burden, modest growth, stalled reforms before elections, political uncertainty, stable inflation, and a growing current account deficit.

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