Entre el relato y el crédito

diciembre 24, 2025

TL;DR

Colombia's public debt has increased by approximately 46% in three years, becoming a major driver of state spending.
The projected deficit for 2025 is 7.1% of GDP, with debt around 63.8% of GDP, after triggering the fiscal rule's escape clause.
The country's deficit continued to widen while peer nations were already implementing fiscal adjustments.
The proposed tax reform, aiming to raise $16.3 trillion, was insufficient to address the deep-seated fiscal issues stemming from structural spending decisions.
The core problem is identified as excessive government spending on operational costs, payroll, bureaucracy, and unproductive programs, rather than a shortfall in revenue.
Fiscal credibility erosion has led to higher financial costs, with rating agencies citing fiscal deterioration and unpredictability in economic policy.
The consequence of the fiscal deterioration is a higher risk premium, more expensive financing, and reduced space for private investment.
The market adjusts to persistent overspending through higher interest rates, lower investment, and reduced potential growth, regardless of government decrees or speeches.

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