Crisis fiscal: tensiones del momento no fueron un hecho fortuito y se tuvo tiempo de corregir el rumbo en el pasado

TL;DR

The Independent Committee of the Fiscal Rule has identified serious issues with the government's public spending planning.
Discrepancies exist between the Medium-Term Spending Framework (MGMP) and the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MFMP), compromising fiscal credibility.
The MGMP proposes a spending path inconsistent with the previously defined fiscal roadmap, diminishing the MFMP's role.
The 2026 primary deficit projection in the MGMP differs from the figure set by the Superior Council of Fiscal Policy, indicating misaligned spending ceilings.
Implicit primary spending ceilings in the MGMP for 2026-2029 are higher than those in the MFMP, suggesting a more expansive spending program.
Unlike previous years, these discrepancies are systematic across the entire projection horizon, raising doubts about anchoring expectations.
The MGMP should inform the National Budget, but it appears to be adjusted to accommodate the budget, failing its intended role.
The archiving of the Financing Law project by Congress has further outdated the MGMP's spending scenario, exacerbating coherence issues.
The Committee expresses concern that these planning problems could impact confidence in Colombia's historically strong fiscal institutions.

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