Calificación de Fitch: crónica de una rebaja anunciada desde mediados de este año y que presiona la crisis fiscal

TL;DR

Fitch downgraded Colombia's credit rating from 'BB+' to 'BB' with a stable outlook due to persistent fiscal deficits and a lack of a credible fiscal anchor.
Analysts had largely predicted the downgrade, but it intensifies debate on public finances and investor confidence.
Fitch projects significant fiscal deficits for Colombia through 2026, exceeding official targets.
Approximately 88% of public spending is rigid (salaries, pensions, interest), limiting maneuverability for fiscal adjustments.
Colombia's general government debt is expected to rise, surpassing the median for 'BB' rated countries.
Despite macroeconomic strengths like an independent central bank, fiscal deterioration and modest growth projections persist.
The government points to fiscal consolidation efforts and positive macroeconomic performance as evidence of sound management.
The next credit rating review will depend on electoral outcomes and the new government's ability to present a credible fiscal plan.

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