Crecimiento modesto, alertas fiscales y tensión política marcarán el 2026

TL;DR

Colombian economy is in a prolonged transition phase, with recent performance better than anticipated but a cycle change is inevitable.
Economic growth has been sustained by consumption, but this engine is weakening and unlikely to support activity in the next twelve months.
Inflation remains a challenge, with forecasts indicating it will close 2025 above 5% and be near 4.5% within twelve months.
Risks to the supply side, particularly in housing, food, and energy sectors, could prolong inflationary pressures.
Private consumption was the main support for recent recovery due to lower household financial burden, peso appreciation, and reduced credit card debt.
The shift from consumption-driven to investment-driven growth is a central challenge, contingent on clearer signals in regulation, licensing, and contract compliance.
Political conditioning and election cycles are expected to introduce volatility and delay key private investment decisions.
Structural bottlenecks such as politicized consultations, slow environmental licenses, and state payment delays continue to challenge investment.
Growth projections for 2026 are around potential (2.7%-2.9%), indicating a need for higher rates to significantly boost incomes.
The fiscal outlook is a major obstacle, with increased government spending requiring reprioritization, austerity measures, and improved execution.

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