Gasto creciente, deuda en aumento y recursos limitados: el panorama fiscal para Colombia al cierre de 2025

diciembre 22, 2025

TL;DR

Colombia's fiscal outlook for 2025 is challenging due to increased spending, rising debt, and insufficient revenue.
The fiscal deficit is projected to reach -6.2% of GDP in 2025, significantly above the historical average.
Primary spending is expected to hit a record high (excluding the pandemic period) of 19.7% of GDP in 2025.
Tax collection is estimated to be between $8 to $10 trillion short of the official target.
General government debt is projected to increase from 59% of GDP in 2025 to 62.8% in 2026.
Interest payments on debt will consume a larger portion of government revenue, rising to 15.4% by 2026.
Fitch downgraded Colombia's sovereign rating and noted a lack of clear fiscal improvement signals.
The government is increasingly using short-term debt instruments, shifting some financing needs to 2026.
A further deficit increase to 7.5% of GDP is predicted for 2026, highlighting sustainability challenges.

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