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TL;DR

Economic growth in Q3 was 3.6%, with a projected 3% for the year, and unemployment fell to 8.2% in September, the lowest since 2001.
Growth is driven by public and private consumption, with government spending leading to a projected 6.7% fiscal deficit for 2025.
Private consumption is boosted by significant minimum wage increases.
The country has lost its investment grade, and interest rates are rising due to increased external debt.
The next government will likely face a severe spending cut and tax increase scenario.
Investment, crucial for sustainable growth, is depressed: foreign investment fell 18.4% in Jan-Oct 2025 and 19% the previous year.
Global investment rate is below 17% of GDP.
The dollar's strength is artificially maintained by government external debt and remittances, which may exceed oil revenues.
Exports remain depressed, with only a 1.8% increase from January to September 2025.
Increasing the minimum wage above inflation will fuel informality.
Further external borrowing for public spending is nearing its limit, as indicated by rising debt spreads.
Another tax reform would harm investment, and stimulating currency revaluation through more external debt would hurt exports.
Continued reliance on consumption will keep inflation high, eroding purchasing power.
The current government is expected to continue high spending before elections, ignoring long-term economic consequences.

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