Reporte de Análisis Energético: 25 de noviembre de 2025
PLAN DE PAZ PARA UCRANIA Y RUSIA EMPUJA LOS PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO A LA BAJA
TL;DR
- Oil markets experienced volatility due to geopolitical tensions, reinitiated Russian Black Sea operations, sanctions on Russian oil companies, and falling U.S. crude inventories.
- A potential resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reportedly agreed upon by the White House and Kremlin, significantly reduced geopolitical risk perception, lowering oil prices.
- Refined product markets are booming, with medium distillate refining margins at a nearly three-year high, driven by EU sanctions on Russian oil products and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining capacity.
- The COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil, concluded with significant disagreements and outcomes falling short of expectations for fossil fuel reduction.
- U.S.-China strategic rivalries continue to shape 21st-century geopolitics, influencing the global economy, supply chains, and technological governance.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky faces mounting pressure, including a U.S.-backed peace proposal requiring territorial and military concessions from Ukraine, and an internal corruption scandal.
- Russia is making slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine, while also bombing power plants, though Russia itself faces economic and military challenges.
- A UN Security Council resolution is expected regarding Gaza, proposing a sustained peace, reconstruction, and the disarmament of Hamas, based on a plan by President Trump.
- U.S. employment data dispelled hopes of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, weakening support for oil demand.
- China's oil demand shows recovery, leading to increased crude quotas for private refineries, while reduced purchases of Russian crude by China and India affect Russian exports.
- Venezuela is experiencing increased military tensions with the U.S., leading to flight cancellations and potential direct talks between Trump and Maduro.
- A Russian naphtha tanker bound for Venezuela was intercepted by the U.S. Navy, impacting diluent availability for Venezuelan crude.
- Venezuela's economy remains strained by sanctions and potential naval blockade, with a significant gap between the official exchange rate and cryptocurrency rates.
- Venezuelan mixed oil companies Petroherijá and Boquerón received a 15-year extension for future production.
- An industrial accident at the PetroCedeño crude upgrader in Venezuela caused significant damage and production/refining disruptions.
- Venezuelan oil production averaged 851 Mbpd for the week, with refineries processing 231 Mbpd.
- The petrochemical sector in Venezuela is hampered by limited natural gas availability.
- Venezuelan crude and product exports for November are averaging below 610 Mbpd, with destinations limited to China, the U.S., and Cuba.
- The weighted price of Venezuelan exported crude is estimated at $30.1/bbl.