Moody’s ve estabilidad en los mercados emergentes para 2026, pero advierte riesgos crecientes

TL;DR

Emerging markets expected to start 2026 with solid credit and macroeconomic conditions.
Factors contributing to stability include firm domestic demand, credible monetary frameworks, and declining inflation.
Corporate default rates are anticipated to remain near pre-pandemic levels.
Countries have diversified trade ties to mitigate exposure to external tensions.
Four major risks for 2026: political polarization, changes in global financial conditions, technological disruption (AI, data centers), and the impact of natural disasters.
Populist or interventionist political changes can disrupt trade and investment flows.
US-China rivalry adds unpredictability and can deepen international fragmentation.
AI and data centers offer growth potential but also pose risks like execution, cybersecurity, and inequality.
Nearly half of emerging sovereigns have high exposure to natural disasters with limited fiscal capacity to respond.
Global economic growth for 2026-2027 projected at a moderate 2.5%-2.6%.
Strengthened local financial markets reduce reliance on foreign currency financing.
Some countries like Brazil and Thailand face weakened credit prospects due to political uncertainty, while others like Turkey and Argentina have seen recent improvements.

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