Polarización y deuda: el nuevo freno oculto de las condiciones de crédito en 2026
La incertidumbre le sigue pasando factura al ritm económico. Foto: iStock
TL;DR
- Political polarization, policy uncertainty, and climate change are becoming dominant factors in global credit risk, overshadowing economic cycles.
- The global economy faces deceptive stability, with underlying tensions stemming from political shifts and structural changes.
- Rising political polarization alters public policy and global governance, increasing unpredictability and credit risks.
- Short-sighted political decisions and erosion of institutional trust weaken long-term planning and increase risks for creditors.
- Europe's increased defense spending, if debt-financed, could lead to significant new public debt by 2030.
- Emerging economies are also affected by political polarization, hindering structural reforms and exacerbating fiscal vulnerabilities.
- Reduced global governance participation and economic autonomy could isolate countries needing external financing.
- Fragile fiscal positions and limited monetary policy margins make economies more vulnerable to external shocks.
- Investors are likely to demand higher risk premiums, increasing debt servicing costs and limiting public investment.
- While inflationary pressures may ease, fiscal uncertainty and rising debt will counteract the effects of more flexible monetary policy.
- Moody's anticipates a slow erosion of credit stability rather than an imminent global credit crisis, with increased volatility and wider risk differentials.