Вечный шах: протесты и даже бомбардировки недостаточны для революции в Иране

enero 28, 2026

TL;DR

Mass protests in Iran are the largest since 2009, following previous unrest since 2017.
The current protests began with market traders protesting the devaluation of the Iranian rial.
Demonstrators have attacked police stations and Basij offices, potentially seeking to provoke state violence.
External threats from the US and Israel are increasing, creating simultaneous internal and external pressure on the regime.
The Iranian economy is severely impacted by renewed European sanctions and past military defeats.
Donald Trump is considering military intervention, likely an air campaign, rather than ground troops.
The regime has taken precautions to protect its leadership, including Ali Khamenei, in underground bunkers.
Retaliation threats from Iran include attacking US bases, Israeli territory, and blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
The protests are supported by a core group, reportedly including supporters of Reza Pahlavi, but the regime believes they do not threaten its stability.
Thousands have been arrested, and the authorities hope this will weaken the protest movement.
The Baloch and Kurdish minorities have joined the protests.
A disintegration of the army, rather than the IRGC, poses the biggest risk to the Islamic Republic.
An extensive air campaign might lead to regime collapse but could result in chaos rather than a change in leadership.

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