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TL;DR

Global merchandise trade is projected to grow by only 3% in 2025, indicating a slowdown from previous expansion cycles.
The world is moving from globalization to fragmentation, with trade reorganizing around like-minded blocs due to concerns about security, energy certainty, and political affinities.
The US is leading the adaptation with significant investment in strategic manufacturing and energy, attracting companies relocating from Asia.
Mexico has become the US's primary trading partner, benefiting from nearshoring.
China is accelerating its self-sufficiency strategy, increasing local content in manufacturing and directing investments towards Asia and Africa.
Europe is also investing heavily in reindustrialization and securing clean energy and reliable suppliers.
Latin America's participation in global trade has declined, and its capacity to attract advanced manufacturing is minimal.
CEPAL warns that the window for Latin America to integrate into new production chains will narrow significantly after 2026.
Latin American countries have historically failed to act as a unified market, leading to fragmented economies and reduced bargaining power.
Colombia faces significant risks due to regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure deficits, declining investor confidence, and a lack of economic foreign policy.
Without a clear strategy connecting its energy matrix, talent, and geography to new value chains, Colombia risks missing a major opportunity.

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