economy
diciembre 26, 2025
Tasas de interés: ¿por qué no lograron frenar la percepción de riesgo en el mercado local?
Las tasas de interés se mantendrían inalteradas buena parte del próximo año. Foto: Imagen generada con Inteligencia Artificial - ChatGPT
TL;DR
- From early 2024 through 2025, Colombia experienced a paradox where the central bank's intervention rate fell, but long-term public bond rates increased.
- This divergence has increased the government's debt servicing costs and surprised analysts.
- The phenomenon has significant fiscal implications, as higher interest payments reduce funds available for public spending.
- Public bond rates are determined by a risk-free component (related to the central bank's intervention rate and future expectations) and a risk premium.
- While inflation expectations remained relatively stable, the intervention rate dropped significantly (from 13.25% to 9.25%), but the 10-year bond rate rose by approximately two percentage points.
- The primary driver for the increase in bond rates is the additional compensation investors demand for risks associated with public debt, which rises as government debt and fiscal deficits increase.
- The market is reacting to the deterioration of public finances, with higher bond yields reflecting increased perceived fiscal risk rather than restrictive monetary policy.