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TL;DR

The central bank initially maintained a cautious approach to interest rates despite pressure for cuts, citing fiscal concerns and their potential impact on the economy.
Recent inflation data for October showed an increase across most components, with inflation expectations for 2025-2026 rising above the target.
Domestic demand continues to expand rapidly, with a 5% increase in the third quarter, suggesting potential demand excesses.
The current account deficit is widening due to accelerated imports, which may be a symptom of excess demand.
These factors have led to discussions about the possibility of an interest rate increase, as indicated in the latest monetary policy meeting minutes.
The upcoming decision on the minimum wage for the next year is critical, with market projections significantly higher than the central bank's technical team estimates.
A substantial increase in the minimum wage could further destabilize inflation expectations and require a strong response from the central bank.
The future path of interest rates will largely depend on the government's policy decisions, which can complicate economic projections.

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