economy
diciembre 26, 2025
Tasas de Interés: la idea de subirlas en 2026 toma cada vez más fuerza en la junta directiva del Emisor
El Emisor ha sido prudente este año con el manejo de las tasaas de interés. Foto: Google Maps
TL;DR
- The decision to maintain the interest rate at 9.25% is a yesterday's issue, with ongoing government demands for a reduction.
- Internal discussions within the Banco de la República's Board of Directors suggest a growing possibility of raising interest rates in 2026 to maintain stability.
- Inflation decreased marginally to 5.3% in November, driven by lower food prices and moderated service inflation, but remains above 2024 levels.
- Core inflation is at 4.9%, and a majority of inflation expectation measures are above the 3% target.
- Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4% annually, surpassing forecasts, with strong domestic demand contributing to consumption growth.
- The technical team revised the 2025 growth projection upwards to 2.9%, citing increased dynamism and job creation.
- The current account deficit widened to 2.4% of GDP in the third quarter, influenced by a deteriorating trade balance.
- External financial conditions have eased due to US interest rate reductions, but Colombia's country risk margins have increased.
- A majority of directors believe a higher policy interest rate is needed for inflation to converge to the target by 2027, noting that monetary policy is less restrictive than months prior.
- Concerns exist about domestic demand outpacing productive capacity, leading to a positive output gap and a persistent inflation.
- An expansionary fiscal policy is adding further price pressures.
- The rising cost of Colombian external debt is exacerbated by public finance imbalances and increased financing needs.
- Two directors initially favored immediate rate hikes, while others argued for a 50-basis-point reduction based on favorable macroeconomic indicators.
- One director advocated for a 25-basis-point reduction, emphasizing the need for comprehensive policies beyond monetary tools.
- Future interest rate movements will depend on inflation, economic activity, and the balance of internal and external risks, with fiscal and external imbalances a key focus.