El precio del dólar en Colombia: qué tendría que pasar para que la divisa termine el 2025 por encima de $4.000
El dólar en Colombia y en el mundo ha perdido más de 10% de su valor en este 2025. Foto: iStock
TL;DR
- The dollar has lost over 10% of its value globally in 2025.
- Colombia's TRM is currently below $3,765, a level not seen in years.
- International factors contributing to the dollar's fall include US trade war rhetoric and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
- Internal Colombian factors include significant capital inflow from the government's Total Return Swap (TRS) operations and attractive interest rate differentials drawing portfolio investment.
- Despite the current drop, initial predictions for the year-end TRM were between $4,000 and $4,100, now seen as less likely.
- A sharp rise in the dollar would likely be triggered by a strong risk-off episode, renewed US tariff announcements, diplomatic crises, or significant shifts in Colombia's political outlook for 2026.
- The year-end projection is now closer to $3,850-$3,950, with the average dollar for the year at $4,088.
- While the dollar's strength may be cyclical, its global hegemony as a reserve and trade currency is not currently seen as threatened in the long term.