economy

diciembre 22, 2025

La producción de petróleo de Colombia ya está en el nivel más bajo de los últimos cuatro años

El petróleo será clave para las finanzas del país en 2026. Foto: Cortesía: Istock

La producción de petróleo de Colombia ya está en el nivel más bajo de los últimos cuatro años

TL;DR

  • Colombia's oil production averaged 746,600 barrels per day from January to October 2025, the lowest in four years.
  • Production in October 2025 was 736,270 barrels per day, down from 764,503 barrels per day in October 2024.
  • Key factors for the decline include government policies against new exploration, investment disincentives, operational challenges, social conflict, and tax burdens.
  • The article highlights that the government's stance on not signing new contracts and not investing in unconventional reservoirs contributes to declining production as existing fields deplete.
  • Tax reforms and decrees have increased the financial strain on oil companies, reducing their capacity for development and exploration activities.
  • A study by the Colombian Petroleum and Gas Association (ACP) estimates a fiscal deficit of nearly $40 trillion from 2027 to 2035 due to falling production.
  • Reduced oil output may impact the supply of refined products for domestic consumption and lead to lower royalty revenues for regions.
  • Despite current low prices around $60 per barrel, some sources believe Colombia remains an attractive country for hydrocarbon investment.
  • International analysts predict oil prices may range between $60 and $70 per barrel next year, influenced by OPEC's potential supply cuts.
  • If the current trend continues, Colombia may not meet its Medium-Term Fiscal Framework targets for oil production through 2035.